The second round of voting in Turkey's presidential election is tomorrow. This vote may determine whether Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, who is ahead in the first round of voting, or Kemal Kilicdarolu, the leader of the main opposition party, comes to power. However, the fate of these two leaders is now largely in the hands of Sinan Ogan and the ATA Alliance that supported him.
No one received the 50 percent needed to become president in the first round. Erdogan came closest to winning with 49.5 percent of the vote. Next was Kilicdarolu. His vote was 44.8 percent. As a result, if Sinan or the ATA coalition behind him gets the support, the presidency will be almost certain for Erdogan and Kilicdarolu.
Sinan Ogan is an international relations expert. He entered the Turkish Parliament in 2011 for the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP). He ran for president in the 2015 election. But did not succeed.
Many analysts say that a candidate named Muharram Inse withdrew from the election a few days before the first round of voting. Many of his supporters voted for Ogan. In addition, there are many young voters in Turkey who do not like Erdogan or Kilicdarolu. They also voted for Ogan and ATA alliance.
According to Mesut Yezen, a professor of sociology at Istanbul's Sehir University, there is a segment of the electorate in Turkey that does not want to see Erdogan as president. They have no interest in today's mainstream political parties in the country. Many of these voters also have secular attitudes. As a result, they are opposed to the religiously conservative politics of Erdoğan and his coalition People's Alliance.
Meanwhile, Kemal Kilicdarolu has the support of pro-Kurdish political party People's Democratic Party. They also have a close relationship. Professor Mesut Yezen said that part of the Turkish voters is also upset with the People's Democratic Party. As a result they will not want to vote for Kilichdarolu.
Both Sinan Ogan and Umit Özdag opposed Erdogan and his party, the Development Party (AK Party), during the campaign before this year's election. But suddenly on May 22, Ogan said that he would support Erdogan in the second round of voting.
Sinan Ogan is an international relations expert. He entered the Turkish Parliament in 2011 for the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP). He ran for president in the 2015 election. But did not succeed. Ogan was away from politics since then. After making an agreement with Umit Ozdag of the Victory Party, he again entered the political field as a presidential candidate.
On the other hand, Umit Ozdag is a professor of international relations. He was once the deputy head of the Nationalist Movement Party. Later got the same post in IYI party. The IYI Party is currently in Kilicdarolu's coalition. After being expelled from the party, he formed the Victory Party in 2021. This group has gained a lot of support due to its nationalist activities.
Radical nationalist platform
Political analyst and author Etienne Mahkoupian believes that Sinan Ogan did not have much voter support before this year's elections in Turkey. According to him, people voted for Ogan only after the support of ATA Alliance led by Ozdag. And if he didn't get him, Ozdag might have chosen someone else as the presidential candidate.
Etienne Mahkoupian told Al-Jazeera that if Ogan had stood alone, he would have had the support of a handful of nationalist political and academic groups. He was supported by the voters of Ozdag and his party Victory Party.
Both Sinan Ogan and Umit Özdag opposed Erdogan and his party, the Development Party (AK Party), during the campaign before this year's election. But suddenly on May 22, Ogan said that he would support Erdogan in the second round of voting. As a result, the ATA Alliance led by the Victory Party of Ozdag broke up on the same day.
Sinan Ogan held a press conference about this. Voters who supported him in the first round of the election urged them to vote for Erdoğan in the second round. He said that he has taken this decision to maintain stability in the country. However, Erdoğan did not make any promise to him in return.
Ozdag opposed Ogan's decision. He said that the decision taken by Ogan is his own. Two days later, Ozdag held a joint press conference with Kemal Kilicdarolu. They signed a memorandum of understanding. In the memorandum of understanding, they agreed on issues such as the return of refugees from Turkey and curbing corruption, nepotism and terrorism.
The path is different
According to political analyst Etienne Mahkoupian, the ATA Alliance could have played a major role in this election. However, the alliance collapsed after only two months due to personal interests. He said, Ogan seems to have thought only about his political career. At the time of his decision to support Erdoğan, he did not worry about the future support of the voters.
Meanwhile, Etienne Mahkoupian believes that Ozdag's Victory Party has good voter support. According to him, Ozdaggar thinks about the future of his own party. He wants to retain the position of the party even after the election. After Ogan's decision to support Erdoğan, he therefore stood in line with the main opposition party.
Now the big question is, what effect can this split in the ATA Alliance have on tomorrow's second round of voting? According to Mesut Yezen, professor of sociology, because of the agreement with Ozdag, a large part of Victory Party supporters will vote for Kılıçdaroğlu. And the supporters of Sinan Ogan can be divided into three groups. Some of them may vote for Erdoğan. Another part of the vote will be in favor of Kilicdarolu. And some supporters don't go to vote at all.
Etienne Mahkoupian has an answer to why Ogan's voters may be divided. In his words, 'Most of his supporters did not vote for Ogan out of emotion. They voted for Erdoğan and Kılıçdaroğlu without finding an alternative.
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